Fault forecasting is the predictive approach to software reliability engineering. Forecasting is a front-end product development. Mature development organizations use fault forecasting as part of their front-end project/product evaluation process. The only way to have even a slight amount of accuracy in the predictive models is though access to appropriate historic data. Reliability models, historic data analysis, failure data collection, and operational environment profiling are key activity in this approach.

The first step in fault forecasting is to determine the functional profile. By keeping track of the state of transitions from module to module and function to function we may learn exactly where a system is fragile. This information coupled with the functional profile will tell us just how reliable the system will be when we use it as specified. Programs make transition from module to module as they executer.

The next step is to define and classify failures. A defined previously, software failures originate with design defects/errors (system and software), coding defects/errors, clerical mistakes, debugging inadequacies, and testing mistakes. The definition of failures involves the failure source.

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